Absence rates put Government efforts to close attainment gap at risk

Thursday 26 March 2026

LONDON – Today’s annual pupil absence statistics underscore the scale of the challenge facing the Government’s new ambition to halve the attainment gap. While persistent school absence in England is improving, it remains stubbornly high, with 18.14% of pupils missing at least 10% of school, while severe absence has continued to worsen, with 2.39% of young people missing over 50% of their lessons – well above the already-high pre-pandemic baselines.

Impetus analysis reveals that at the current rate of progress, it will take another 5 years for persistent absence to return to pre-pandemic levels, and 9 years for young people from disadvantaged backgrounds.

This level of lost learning has lifelong consequences. Persistent and severe absence reduce GCSE pass rates by 39-percentage points and 71-percentage points respectively, which in turn doubles the likelihood of a young person not being in education, employment, or training (NEET) in adulthood. Based on today’s data, if the young people who are persistently or severely absent today remain so in Years 10 and 11, it would mean that 640,000 young people could be on track to leave education without the GCSEs they likely would have passed with better attendance.

Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are bearing the brunt of the attendance crisis, facing higher rates of absence and slower rates of recovery:

• Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds more than twice as likely to be persistently absent than their more affluent peers.
• Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are more than 3.5 times more likely to be severely absent from school.

Remedying this inequality must be central to the Government’s mission to improve outcomes for young people from disadvantaged backgrounds. Without a dramatic acceleration in progress, developed in conjunction with schools, parents, and young people, these absence rates will make Government’s new ambition of halving the attainment gap, as set out in the recent Schools White Paper, incredibly difficult to achieve.

Susannah Hardyman MBE, CEO of Impetus, said:

While it is encouraging to see overall absence rates moving in the right direction and we’re thrilled Government has committed to halving the attainment gap, the children in school today cannot afford to wait another 5 years for rates to return to pre-pandemic levels. Low school attendance has become a key driver behind some of England’s most pernicious challenges, from stagnating attainment to high rates of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET). As always, these challenges hit young people from disadvantaged backgrounds hardest.

Our research has found a fundamental shift in attitudes since the pandemic. Going to school is no longer the default, but a daily choice shaped by a young person's mood, circumstances, and competing priorities. At best, young people describe school as a means to an end – something to be endured, rather than a meaningful experience in itself.

Tackling this new reality requires innovative, evidence-based solutions and evaluating all current measures – including absence fines – and enabling schools to trial new ideas, create school environments based on trust and connection, and rebuild the social contract between schools, parents, and pupils.

Dr Chris Tomlinson, CEO of the Co-op Academies Trust, said:

At Co-op Academies Trust, we believe attendance is shaped by the quality of a young person’s daily experience at school. When pupils feel a strong sense of belonging, are engaged in the classroom and have access to meaningful enrichment opportunities, attendance improves naturally. For us, improving attendance is about creating schools where every child feels they belong, are supported and inspired.

We are committed to enabling our schools to innovate and respond to the needs of their communities. By combining high-quality teaching, inclusive pastoral support, broad enrichment and targeted work with families, we are addressing the root causes of absence rather than just the symptoms. This approach has led to year-on-year improvements in attendance over the past two years, and we remain focused on sustaining that progress for the long term.

Prof Caroline Bond, Professor of Educational Psychology at the University of Manchester, said:

Dedicated provision for children and young people struggling to attend school can be a crucial tool in re-engaging young people and their families in education. Staff collaboration with families fosters trust, a shared understand of young people’s needs and a shared commitment to supporting attendance and engagement with education.

NOTES TO EDITORS:

For video and audio content, including further analysis on today’s data, please visit this link: [EXT] Impetus Absence Stats March 2026.

For case studies of schools working on innovative interventions to improve school attendance, please contact: Danika O’Connor (danika.oconnor@coopacademies.co.uk), Head of Marketing and PR at the Co-op Academies Trust.

For all other media enquiries, please contact press@impetus.org or call 07774 437 701.

About the data

• Missed GCSE calculations: The above calculations are based on data from the Children’s Commissioner’s Missing Children, Missing Grades report. The Children’s Commissioner’s report found that being persistently absent in Years 10 and 11 is associated with a 39-percentage point reduced likelihood of passing GCSE English and maths (see Figure 12), consistent with DfE data from before the pandemic, whereas severe absence is associated with a 71-percentage point reduced likelihood. As such, we applied a 39% reduction to the total number of persistently absent young people and a 71% reduction to the total number of severely absent young people to estimate the total number unlikely to pass their GCSEs who likely would have passed if they attended school more consistently, assuming they maintain their attendance rates in Years 10 and 11. This value is equal to 647,560.

• Time until return to pre-pandemic levels: We analysed official Department for Education statistics on overall and FSM persistent absence rates for the academic years 2021/22, 2022/23, 2023/24, and 2024/25. From these data, we calculated (i) the average annual rate of change over this period and (ii) the estimated number of years required for both rates to return to their levels in the final academic year before the pandemic, 2018/19.

• Definition of disadvantage: In this analysis, we use Free School Meals eligibility as a proxy for disadvantage.

About Impetus

Impetus transforms the education and employment outcomes of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds. We do this by using our deep expertise and high calibre networks to give the best non-profits in these sectors the essential ingredients to have a real and lasting impact. Through a powerful combination of long-term funding, direct capacity building support from our experienced team and our pro bono partners, alongside research and policy influencing to drive lasting systems change, we work towards a society where all young people can thrive in school, pass their exams and unlock the doors to sustained employment, for a fulfilling life.

To find out more about Impetus, visit impetus.org.uk.