Today’s autumn term pupil absence statistics reveal the scale of the challenge facing the Prime Minister to create an education system that works for all young people. Worryingly, persistent absence rose last autumn, compared to the previous autumn term, and the children paying the highest price are those who can least afford to fall behind.
Today, 18% of pupils are missing at least one day in every ten, while severe absence has also continued to worsen, with more than 2% of young people missing over half of their lessons - well above the already-high pre-pandemic baselines.
Impetus’ analysis reveals that, at the current rate of progress, it will take another 4 years for persistent absence to return to pre-pandemic levels, and more than 7 years for young people from disadvantaged backgrounds. This is not a timetable any government committed to social mobility should accept.
This level of lost learning has lifelong consequences. Persistent and severe absence reduce GCSE pass rates by 39-percentage and 71-percentage points respectively, which in turn doubles the likelihood of a young person not being in education, employment, or training (NEET) in adulthood.
Based on today’s data, if the young people who are persistently or severely absent remain so in Years 10 and 11, over 600,000 young people are on track to miss their GCSEs - which they would likely have passed with better attendance.
Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are bearing the brunt of the attendance crisis, facing higher rates of absence and slower rates of recovery:
- Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are twice as likely to be persistently absent than their more affluent peers.
- Young people from disadvantaged backgrounds are three and a half times as likely to be severely absent from school.
Susannah Hardyman MBE, CEO of Impetus, said:
"The government is right to prioritise closing the attainment gap - only 44% of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds pass English and maths GCSEs, compared to 73% of their better off peers. These qualifications are the strongest protective factor against becoming NEET (not in education, employment or training) later in life. But the goal to close the attainment gap and reduce NEET numbers becomes much harder to achieve if too many children are simply not in the classroom.
Children from disadvantaged backgrounds cannot afford to wait another 7 years for attendance rates to return to pre-pandemic levels – over a decade of damage. Every year of delay means more young people are missing out on qualifications, opportunities and brighter futures. As always, these challenges hit those who are most at risk of being left behind the hardest.
Our research points to a fundamental shift in attitudes since the pandemic. Going to school is no longer the default, but a daily choice shaped by a young person's mood, circumstances, and competing priorities. At best, young people describe school as a means to an end – something to be endured, rather than a meaningful experience in itself. Friendship, trusted adult relationships and having opportunities to succeed outside the classroom are vital. We call on the Prime Minister to consider this when designing the reforms set out last week on creating new technical routes for students aged 14-16yrs.
Tackling this new reality requires innovative, evidence-based solutions, evaluating existing measures – including fines – and creating school environments where every young person feels they belong and believes that turning up to school matters. If we want every young person to have a fair chance in life, improving attendance must become a national priority.”
Susannah Hardyman MBE, CEO, Impetus
Prof Caroline Bond, Professor of Educational Psychology at the University of Manchester, said:
“Dedicated provision for children and young people struggling to attend school can be a crucial tool in re-engaging young people and their families in education. Staff collaboration with families fosters trust, a shared understand of young people’s needs and a shared commitment to supporting attendance and engagement with education.”
Prof Caroline Bond, Professor of Educational Psychology at the University of Manchester
About the data
- Missed GCSE calculations: The above calculations are based on data from the Children’s Commissioner’s Missing Children, Missing Grades report. The Children’s Commissioner’s report found that being persistently absent in Years 10 and 11 is associated with a 39-percentage point reduced likelihood of passing GCSE English and maths (see Figure 12), consistent with DfE data from before the pandemic, whereas severe absence is associated with a 71-percentage point reduced likelihood. As such, we applied a 39% reduction to the total number of persistently absent young people and a 71% reduction to the total number of severely absent young people to estimate the total number unlikely to pass their GCSEs who likely would have passed if they attended school more consistently, assuming they maintain their attendance rates in Years 10 and 11.
- Time until return to pre-pandemic levels: We analysed official Department for Education statistics on overall and FSM persistent absence rates for Autumn term 2021/22, 2022/23, 2023/24, 2024/25, and 2025/26. From these data, we calculated (i) the average annual rate of change over this period and (ii) the estimated number of years required for both rates to return to their levels in the Autumn term before the pandemic, 2018/19.
- Definition of disadvantage: In this analysis, we use Free School Meals eligibility as a proxy for disadvantage.
Impetus attendance research
Impetus’ ground-breaking research with Public First looks at attitudes towards school attendance. The first report looked at parents' view of school attendance which revealed they did not believe every day matters in the classroom. This was reinforced by the second report which heard from Year 10 students who said going to school was not a given but a daily decision.
The third report which explores teachers' views will be published on 10 September 2026.
