In this issue

• Our thoughts on the last month’s news and announcements including a bumper crop of things: Curriculum and Assessment Review, post-16 White Paper, Mayfield review, Milburn review…
• Some things we enjoyed reading from the University of Manchester on Exclusion, Jonathan Slater on how to stop failing poor children, and impact economy things
• Some things to look forward to over the next month like the FEA summit and Youth Employment UK’s symposium (it’s also Christmas and Hanukkah)
• If you get to the end, we’re talking about procurement

News and views

Our focus here, as at Impetus, is on the outcomes that we know work to improve the life chances of young people from disadvantaged backgrounds – school engagement, educational attainment, and sustained employment.

• The report of the Curriculum and Assessment Review is finally out, featuring (drumroll) the introduction of an oracy framework, putting this key skill on par with reading, writing and arithmetic. Two years ago, Keir Starmer, the then-Leader of the Opposition committed to “weaving oracy through a new national curriculum”. Our portfolio partners Voice 21 recognised the opportunity, and I was fortunate enough to be seconded to them as they set up the Oracy Education Commission. This is one of those rare “big win” moments – the culmination of years of work which will have implications for decades to come. Influencing is not easy. It requires organisations to have the patience to lay the groundwork for months and often years before any big policy change and, when it does come, it’s a gamble as to whether you even get credit. But success like this makes it all worth it. We know oracy is invaluable for the young people we care about and, from September 2028, every school in England will implement it as part of their curriculum. I want to say an enormous congratulations to Voice 21 and the Oracy Education Commission, for being at the forefront of this once-in-a-generation shift. (Ayesha Baloch, Senior Policy Advisor)
• It’s been a colossal month for youth employment. We’ve seen the post-16 Education and Skills White Paper, the final report of the Keep Britain Working (Mayfield) Review, the announcement of the Milburn Review into rising youth inactivity and quarterly statistics on young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET), alongside reports, articles and op-eds a plenty… And breathe. Though it was technically last month, it’s worth starting with the Education and Skills White Paper again, which cited our latest Youth Jobs Gap report, twice! We know qualifications are the single most protective factor against being NEET, so it was positive to see the focus on ensuring young people get key English and maths qualifications, including our Tutoring Coalition partner Get Further’s recommendation to introduce GCSE ‘stepping stone’ qualifications for learners with lower prior attainment. While we were pleased to see the introduction of new vocational qualifications, we know there is an essential skills gap (teamwork, communication etc.) holding back the young people we care about, so I was disappointed not to see this feature more heavily. (Ayesha Baloch, Senior Policy Advisor)
• We were pleased to feature in the latest school absence stats coverage this month. Our analysis of the Autumn/Spring 25 data finds that at current rates it will take another four years for persistent absence rates to return to their already too-high pre-pandemic level, and nearly six years for young people from disadvantaged backgrounds. Whilst more behaviour and attendance hubs, and support for schools, has been announced - although quickly suspended following concerns about the reliability of AI generated data - we urge government to go further and to evaluate whether this and other interventions used to improve attendance, actually work. Going to school is foundational for future success, and its decline has become the key driver behind some of England’s toughest challenges so it’s important we understand exactly what it takes to shift the dial. (Carlie Goldsmith, Senior Policy Advisor)
• Last month’s Impetus Insights landed in your inbox the same day the DfE announced further delay to the publication of the schools white paper. Now billed for “early in the new year” Bridget Phillipson has said the additional time will be used to further test policy options with parents and experts. Whilst there’s no denying the scale of the challenges the system faces (set out rather soberly this month in IfG’s latest schools performance tracker) I hope the consensus in the sector around inclusion and prevention as foundations for reform - along with the practical policy solutions being offered by the likes of IPPR and others - gives policy makers confidence to be ambitious for all children, but especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds. (Carlie Goldsmith, Senior Policy Advisor)
• Thankfully, NEET statistics did not surpass a million, as many had been fearing. As always, the release should be taken with a pinch of salt due to the continued volatility of the Labour Force Survey, but the data suggests that rates may be at the beginning of a downward trend, or at the very least plateauing. Though numbers remain higher than pre-pandemic rates (which we recently calculated has cost us about £20bn in lost GDP!) a silver lining is the enormous amount of attention the issue is getting across government and the media. At the time of writing this we haven’t yet seen the budget, but fingers crossed the sustained attention on NEETs translates into more funding for the Youth Guarantee. (Ayesha Baloch, Senior Policy Advisor)
• I know LinkedIn speak has made people prone to roll their eyes at certain forms of expression, but I was genuinely honoured to attend Child Poverty Action Group’s 60^th Anniversary celebration. Gordon Brown gave a blistering speech setting out the moral and political imperative of eradicating child poverty, reminding us that 4.5 million children live in poverty now - 2 million in deep poverty. It’s an untenable situation and was delighted we co-signed a letter calling for the two-child limit to be scrapped. By the time you read this, the Budget statement will have happened, and if the speculation proves correct we will now be clearer on the fate of the two-child limit. But whether it’s in solace or celebration I cannot recommend this from the event enough – believe me when I say there wasn’t a dry eye in the house. (Carlie Goldsmith, Senior Policy Advisor)

Top reads

Here's our roundup of some of the most useful and thought-provoking reads across a range of interesting areas...

• Academics at the University of Manchester published the first large-scale investigation into internal exclusion practices in English secondary schools. It reported that, alongside other groups, young people on free school meals and those living in deprived neighbourhoods are disproportionately affected by internal exclusion, with the experience damaging feelings of belonging. Another major finding - that 8.3% of pupils reported being placed in isolation at least once a week, for an average of 8.5 hours - attracted widespread discussion across social platforms. The authors described the figure as “worryingly high”, while also noting limitations that it’s a small sample of schools (121) and young people’s self-reported experience. The lack of existing comparative data strengthens the case for greater oversight and scrutiny of internal exclusion practices, including routine collection and publication of robust data on a wider range of lost learning. (Carlie Goldsmith, Senior Policy Advisor)
• Former DfE Permanent Secretary Jonathan Slater released a report with UCL on what it would actually take to “stop failing poor children”. It’s always good to see people with his perspective on these issues laying out a radical vision with new outcomes measures, revised accountability, and more evaluation among the recommendations. This is not one to read for immediate reforms and tweaks, and all the better for it. (Ben Gadsby, Head of Policy and Research)
• It’s no surprise that NEET young people came up as a key cohort in Sir Charlie Mayfield’s Keep Britain Working review. Many of these young people are economically inactive, meaning they are not seeking work, with much of this driven by mental ill health, which will be one of the focus areas. Hot on the Mayfield Review’s heels was the announcement of an independent investigation into rising youth inactivity, led by the former Labour Health Secretary Alan Milburn. In what feels like a natural next step, the Milburn Inquiry will be a deep dive into the impact of mental ill health and disability on young people. When I first started working on youth employment, the thought of mental health pushing young people out of work was still being treated with scepticism. We’ve come a long way since then, not least due to the growing evidence base (see: The Resolution Foundation, Youth Futures Foundation) but the question of why remains up in the air. It sometimes feels like we’ve glossed over the implications of the pandemic, and just how much the world has changed since then. The Milburn Review marks an important step in better understanding what young people today are experiencing, which is crucial if we are to make good policy. (Ayesha Baloch, Senior Policy Advisor)
• A good month for fellow school admission policy nerds. New research shows children from poorer families are much less likely to attend highly effective secondary schools - even when good schools are nearby. The authors propose reserving 15% of places in each school for FSM pupils, to boost access to top schools for young people from disadvantaged backgrounds - that would mean no change for 90% of other students. A no cost policy that breaks down the relationship between family background and opportunity – definitely one to watch. (Carlie Goldsmith, Senior Policy Advisor)
• Two new substacks launched this summer which I’ve added to my personal must-read list, and which have already provided some work-relevant content. Ex-Nick Clegg SpAd Polly Mackenzie has called hers “how to run a country” and in among the various thoughtfully posts about policymaking as a field is a brilliant one on how schools cannot solve all our problems. Peter Hyman worked in a different number 10 (Blair’s) before setting up School 21 and Voice 21 and has a much more political comms focussed blog “changing the story”). But his piece on oracy, just before the Curriculum and Assessment Review, was excellent. Since all good things come in threes, The Learning Dispatch by Carl Hendrick kicked off in February and is full of the science of learning stuff, but his post on comfortable fictions is also a hard hitting call to arms: “there is a particular kind of delusion that afflicts well-meaning people in education: the belief that because their intentions are good, their methods must be sound… Moral appeal is not empirical validity”. Might get that as a tattoo. (Ben Gadsby, Head of Policy and Research)
• Despite being a massive month, since we’re the leading impact funder, we’re not going to overlook impact things. The final report of the Social Impact Investment Advisory Group was released, and the Office for the Impact Economy it recommended has already been created. Our Philanthropy and Partnerships Director Harbi Jama has blogged about it all. Meanwhile as an advisory board member for DWP Employment Data Lab I am pleased to tell you the Social Mobility Foundation’s programme boosts outcomes. As always, we’re banging the drum for spending money well. (Ben Gadsby, Head of Policy and Research)

Look ahead

Thursday 4 December is Youth Employment UK’s Good Youth Employment Symposium

Monday 8 December is the FEA Summit

Thursday 18 December is the next edition of Impetus Insights, since we weren’t sure you’d read one sent on Christmas Day…

Friday 19 December is the deadline for responding to the Inquiry into White Working Class Educational Outcomes - Call for Evidence

And finally... procurement

A very wise former boss with experience at the heart of government once told me he’d concluded that no matter how much good policy work you do, it would always be a bit of a lottery whether the thing that was actually procured would actually match your policy ideals. I suggested this meant we should spend time trying to fix procurement. He told me that sounded a bit boring. Good news: Re:State have done the technical work. There’s more I’d like to see - for relationship-driven services like employability support I still think we undervalue existing relationships and community connections, plus we probably don’t weight enough towards quality and outcomes in fields where the cost of failure is higher. But it’s great that this thinking is happening. If I ever win the lottery I will commission more on this.